I hate to admit this but this caught my eye on the HUFF POST. They are not that reliable but I vetted this and these two professors in Colorado have deduced that Mitt Romney will win in a landslide. Their diametric has some valid points and I, by all means am not a professor, but I have some experience in playing the odds.
Their contention, and mind you their prediction model has predicted every presidential race since 1980, is that economic indicators are what reads the tea leaves. They predict Romney winning 320 to 218. Who am I to argue with two guys who have been doing this since 1980?
Here is the problem if you seek out other very relevant models.
1) Romney has not moved past 191 in the states he is most likely to win for quite some time. I have been following for the last 6 months and this number has not eclipsed the 191 mark, ever.
2) “The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.” According to these guys these 9 states, all the major “battleground” states will go to Romney. I think this is some shark jumping. True a great deal can happen between now and then. This would require all 9 of the states to go strictly to Romney. I just don’t see this. And neither does Real Clear Politics. Which has Obama sitting at 221 coming out of the gate. Which leaves only 49 electoral votes to be had. Again Romney, as on most other projection models, still sits in his 191 chair with 79 votes to be gathered up.
3) This election may come down to the wire but I am not sure that Romney will catch up. Other projections have Pennsylvania leaning Obama. Some have him winning outright and that is considering the questionable voter ID kerfuffle. If this states, with so many intangibles taking place, falls Obama then the ones, minus the same intangibles, are fully in play for the President and makes his road to 49 more electoral votes pretty clear. Penn has 20 so that knocks the number down to 29 votes. That would only require Florida to fall to Obama and game over.
Professor Berry even warns “As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict.”
As they say in professional sports “that is why we play the game.” And the Game is ON!